Value analysis of photovoltaic power generation industry

[Abstract]

New energy power generation refers to the process of using various energy forms other than traditional energy, including solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean tidal energy, etc. to achieve power generation. Among them, wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation have developed the most significant in the past ten years. Industrial investment is very active, and the newly installed capacity has repeatedly set records.

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At the same time, technological progress is rapid, power generation costs have dropped significantly, and business models have continued to innovate. In the future electric energy structure, solar and wind power will become the mainstream.

Solar photovoltaic power generation is an important branch of solar power generation. It mainly refers to the use of solar cells to directly convert sunlight energy into electrical energy. Solar cells usually use the principle of photovoltaic effect of semiconductor devices for photoelectric conversion. According to the material of photovoltaic cells, solar cells It can be roughly divided into two categories, one is crystalline silicon solar cells, including monocrystalline silicon solar cells, polycrystalline silicon solar cells; the other is thin-film solar cells, mainly including amorphous silicon solar cells, cadmium telluride solar cells and copper indium Gallium-selenium solar cells, etc.

Business model of photovoltaic power generation industry

1) The business model of distributed photovoltaic power generation: the definition refers only to the distributed power generation system that runs on the grid, and off-grid photovoltaic systems are not included.

2) The business model of large-scale ground photovoltaic power generation: Large-scale ground photovoltaic power plants are generally integrated into the high-voltage transmission network (110kV and above) through booster stations, and do not directly supply power to the load. The business model adopted can only be "on-grid tariff" , That is, all power generation is sold to grid companies at the photovoltaic feed-in tariff.

3) The business model of distributed grid-connected photovoltaic power generation: This is the world's most photovoltaic application form. my country’s “Golden Sun Demonstration Project” and “Photovoltaic Building” projects fall into this category. my country’s upcoming distributed photovoltaic subsidy policy also For this type of form.

Photovoltaic, as a kind of energy that is vigorously promoted and developed, will play an important role under the "double cycle" and usher in new development opportunities. In the internal cycle, photovoltaic power generation as a renewable energy source can guarantee energy supply. In the external cycle, the continuously upgraded and improved photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain will enhance my country’s competitiveness in the international market and promote the accelerated deployment of photovoltaic enterprises. The cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped significantly, ranking first among renewable energy sources. It is estimated that the world's average annual new installed capacity from 2021-2025 will reach 222GW-287GW. In 2025, the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to reach 400GW, an increase of 250% from 2019.

【Conclusion】

The cost of photovoltaics is falling rapidly, and the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour will be lower than that of thermal power in the future. According to the IRENA report, the cost per kilowatt-hour of biomass, geothermal, hydropower, photovoltaic, solar thermal, offshore wind power and onshore wind power were compared. The cost per kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic power dropped by 82% from 2010 to 2019 to US$0.068/kWh. It is the variety with the fastest drop in cost among all renewable energy sources, and the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour is close to the lower limit of the cost of fossil energy.